Posted: May 18, 2021 by tallbloke in Forecasting, Solar physics, solar system dynamics 0 The last time we took a look at Leif Svalgaard’s SC25 prediction in 2018 , he was predicting a peak amplitude of around 140SSN in 2024. The averaged sunspot graph was not posted? The article below, by Laura Snider, … However, after analyzing the lowest adjusted 10.7cm solar flux values, we find that the adjusted flux for November 2018 is low enough to give the start of solar cycle 25 between October 2018 and February 2019, November 2018 being most likely. I assumed that the Cycle 25 magnetic field strength would probably approach zero in a manner similar to Cycle 24. “The sun is performing as we expected–maybe even a little better,” says Lisa Upton of Space Systems Research Corporation, and co-chair of the NOAA/NASA Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel. Leif’s falls in the middle of the range; ours falls at the low end. The current numbering for the solar cycle series goes back to 1755. This modern Grand Solar Minimum during solar cycles 25–27 (from 2020 to 2053), and also the forecast Grand Solar Minimum from 2370 to 2415, will bring the same unique and significant reduction in solar activity as occurred during the Maunder Minimum. I love it when Svalgaard is proved wrong and has to make a revision, he is such an arrogant SOB. Or anything in between. A future projection of the sunspot number can be made by assuming a magnetic field and calculating the slopes. Solar Cycle 25 predictions announced. Solar cycle 25 will want to peak in 2025 when the Earth-Venus inferior conjunctions are more in line with Neptune, and Jupiter is roughly in quadrature with Neptune. Carl Luetzelschwab – K9LA – Prospects and Predictions for Solar Cycle 25 . There is a vast range of predictions out there from many researchers using different methods. Figure 1 — The scientifi c consensus on what may lie ahead for Cycle 25 com-pared to previous solar cycles. Solar cycle 25. A weak solar cycle … Aequitas, this sounds interesting, thanks for posting. The strength of Solar Cycle 25 is a very important test for this new theory. This is also known as the Wolf Number, as the system for calculating sunspot numbers counting goes back to astronomer Johann Rudolf Wolf in 1848. Most prediction schemes predict a weak Solar Cycle 25, including ones that use the strength of the Sun’s polar magnetic fields at solar minimum as an indicator of the strength of the next cycle. • The 13-month average sunspot count for June 2020 was 7.8 spots per day, compared to 4.1 for the corresponding month in the previous cycle. They announced on December 7, 2020, their prediction that Solar Cycle 25 will be one of the strongest on record. The updated prediction is 134 ± 11 or 131 ± 11 on the revised SSN V2.0 scale assuming the cycle 24 minimum to occur in 2020 or 2021, respectively. The great news is, we may not have to wait long into 2021 to know which model is correct. Everybody needs to focus on the portion of incident solar that is absorbed in the atmosphere, and see how — or IF, at all — it varies. blackout map m1 solar flare april 19 2021. “In 2019, the panel predicted that Solar Cycle 25 would peak in July 2025 (± 8 months) with a maximum sunspot count of 115 ± 10. I had many disagreements with on WUWT. Lead image credit: One of the first prominences of 2021. Credit: Roger Hutchison. Between 2023 and 2025, the sun will reach its maximum activity, after which it will decrease again around 2027. The straight line fit is not great but usable. Weaker interaction leads to less overlap and stronger cycles. The alternative calculation is to find the relationship between the temporal magnetic field change and the magnitude of the Sunspot number and then calculate the sunspot number from the change in the magnetic field strength. Ned Nikolov has been working on albedo. “The sun is performing as we expected–maybe even a little better,” says Lisa Upton of Space Systems Research Corporation, and co-chair of the NOAA/NASA Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel. Doug Biesecker, panel co-chair and solar physicist at NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) in Boulder, Colorado, said Solar Cycle 25 is likely to be as strong as its predecessor, which was a below-average cycle, but does have its risks. “We still do not have a full understanding of the physical origin of the solar cycle,” NCAR/High Altitude Observatory research solar scientist Giuliana de Toma (who was not part of the study) told Universe Today. The article below, by Laura Snider, … It’s a fun time to be in the solar prediction game. For obscure historical reasons, Solar Cycle 1 is a nondescript cycle which peaked in 1760. NOAA’s forecast then begins to plot the descent into the minimum of Cycle 25 from mid-2025 to 2031-or-thereabouts; and while all this paints Solar Cycle 25 as another historically weak cycle (one similar to 24 and which will continue the cooling trend), it isn’t the story here. I thought they were supposed to correlate well. The speaker is Carl Luetzelschwab – K9LA. This is useful because it puts a limit on the near future sunspot number unless the magnetic field does something completely strange. And I reckon that it will have a second peak when Earth-Venus and Jupiter repeat that arrangement with Uranus in 2027. Solar cycle 24-25 has already passed 23-24 in Wikipedia’s ‘alternative’ table which ‘is instead divided into (unofficial) cycles starting and ending with a maximum, to give a better feel for the number of spotless days associated with each minimum’: Solar Cycles……Start” (Max. In the last plot, you’ve confirmed Svalgaard’s original peak prediction of at or slightly higher than SC24. The updated prediction is based on the results of NOAA’s Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel. For the sunspot number to be low the magnetic field must fall away gradually. We examine the statistical relationship between sunspot-maximum amplitude and Ap-index, and similarly that between sunspot area and Ap-index. The F10.7 radio flux and SSN data from Solen.info also show low activity. Since There’s no Up or Down in Space, How do our Brains Deal With This? There’s actually a push-pull battle when it comes to solar activity versus incoming cosmic rays: high solar activity pushes the local solar bubble out, making for less cosmic ray bombardment… the reverse is true when the Sun is at a minimum, but of course, then astronauts have to then contend with dangerous solar flares. Change ), You are commenting using your Facebook account. This time around, humanity is poised to study the Sun like never before. NASA’s forecast for the next solar cycle (25) reveals it will be the weakest of the last 200 years. The panel agreed that Cycle 25 will be average in intensity and similar to Cycle 24. Within the next few years, we’ll know the facts. It is clear from our analysis that while predictions for Solar Cycle 25 (Figure 4) utilizing diverse techniques still suffer from non-convergence just like Solar Cycle 24 forecasts (Figure 3), physically well founded model-based predictions for Sunspot Cycle 25 have converged (Figure 5); however, this does not imply future physical model based forecasts would always agree with each other. Or so some visionary scientists are saying. Join us at patreon.com/universetoday. Amen, Tallbloke. Perhaps this will answer your question. Our study reveals that the amplitude of the Sunspot Cycle 25 is likely to be \approx 100.21 \pm 15.06 and it may peak in April 2025\pm 6.5 months. “SWPC forecasts a solar maximum between 105 and 125, with the peak occurring between November 2024 and March 2026,” Donovan said. The maximum of this next cycle — measured in terms of sunspot number, a standard measure of solar activity level — could be 30 to 50% lower than the most recent one. Important value additions. “SWPC forecasts a solar maximum between 105 and 125, with the peak occurring between November 2024 and March 2026,” Donovan said. It is found that the predicted solar maximum, ascent time, and cycle length are 115.1, 4.84 yr, and 11.06 yr, respectively, for cycle 25, and 107.3, 4.80 yr, and 10.97 yr, respectively, for cycle 26. Sorry, your blog cannot share posts by email. Right now, researchers hope to mark a formal end to Cycle 24 in 2021 to make a definitive prediction of solar cycle 25 amplitude. If the solar minimum prediction is correct, this would make Solar Cycle 24 the 7 th longest on record (11.4 years). Stuck in moderator filter? Think again. This is very similar to the … It predicted a cycle 24 peak of around 100SSN, compared to the actual of 116SSN. With solar minimum already over, scientists expect the Sun's activity to increase toward the next predicted maximum in July 2021. Another SC 25 prediction, with the benefit of the cycle having already started of course…, Published: 19 April 2021 We study the geomagnetic activity Ap-index in relation to sunspot number and area for the interval covering Solar Cycles 17 to 24 (1932 – 2019), in view of the availability of data for the Ap-index from 1932 on, in order to predict the amplitude of Sunspot Cycle 25. Our study reveals that the amplitude of the Sunspot Cycle 25 is likely to be ≈100.21±15.06 and it may peak in April 2025±6.5 months. We just started solar cycle 25 “in December 2020” and the solar activity is only now on the rise. The data is processed to a 24 month centered average to give a bulk result. Solar Cycle 24, which began in December 2008 and is likely to end in 2020, was smaller in magnitude than the previous two cycles. This is a very helpful tool for predicting auroras. As the Sun has shown a tendency of cycle lengthening since Solar Cycle 23 (1996–2008 CE), the behavior of Solar Cycle 25 can be critically important to the later solar activity. Between 2023 and 2025, the sun will reach its maximum activity, after which it will decrease again around 2027. Instead, researchers suggested that the strength and orientation of the Heliospheric Current Sheet may be a better indicator for solar health. 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The role of solar activity near the poles (a place where sunspots are rarely seen) is particularly intriguing… Solar Orbiter will provide low-angle views of the poles near the next solar maximum, starting in 2025. The panel agreed that Cycle 25 will be average in intensity and similar to Cycle 24. ©2021 BuzzFeed, Inc. Change ), You are commenting using your Google account. Solar mean-field variations also limit TSI and SST changes – no runaway solar warming. A new study goes against the consensus, suggesting we may be in for a wild ride… if predictions and analysis of past solar cycle transitions hold true. The last time we had a short nine-year termination was Cycle 18 in the 1950s, which was then followed by Solar Cycle 19, one of the strongest in the 20th century. This is the of course the sine cosine type relationship of the Polarity Sunspots to the Polar Magnetic Field strength. As a result, the solar cycles have been steadily weaker too. The chart below, List of Solar Cycles, lists the past 24 Solar Cycles. The updated prediction is based on the results of NOAA’s Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel. However, the long-range prediction is that Solar Cycle 25 will below average, quiet, and cool. Leif knows this, which is why he qualifies his prediction with caveats such as “provided the Polar Field Precursor Relationship holds.”. The graphic below shows the projection with this assumption producing a Cycle peak in 2025 of 73. Now: Monday 19th April 2021 AT 19.30. A new study entitled – Overlapping Magnetic Activity Cycles and the Sunspot Number: Forecasting Sunspot Cycle 25 Amplitude published in the November 2020 issue of Solar Physics shows that all may not be what it seems when it comes to our host star. We have been skeptical of claims of impending doom all along. the cycle being refered to here is the approx. “(The termination point) is a measure of how strongly the the magnetized bands of the Hale Cycle will interact,” says McIntosh. there are many solar cycles. The incident solar absorbed in the atmosphere is relatively small (~20%), and the energy is lost back to space on a diurnal basis. The Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel notes that just because it is a relatively calm solar cycle, doesn't mean we should not expect to see a few flare-ups of solar activity as the cycle heats up. Join Zoom … He will show the predictions for Solar Cycle 25 and estimate when the higher bands (15 meters, 12 meters and 10 meters) will be back on a consistent day-to-day basis. Prediction of Solar Cycle 25. This time it’s the reverse,, at the moment. Specifically, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) scientists in the study looked at 270 years of sunspot numbers, using a mathematical analysis. In 2021 the Mini Ice Age will hit as Sunspot Cycle number 25 kicks in. With a solar minimum occurring just under nine years later for Cycle 24 in December 2019, This new analysis suggests that Solar Cycle 25 may see solar and sunspot activity returning with a vengeance. The sunspot number is derived as a weighted average. It had two maxima on October 2013 and February 2014. A new study suggests that Solar Cycle 25 may be more powerful than previously predicted. Cypress Hall, C3, 466 Via Ortega, Stanford, CA 94305-4085 * Corresponding author: Leif Svalgaard (leif@leif.org) ABSTRACT Prediction of solar cycle is an important goal of Solar Physics both because it serves as a touchstone for our understanding of the sun and … Polar field total seems to be dropping away quickly compared to pre-cycle24. Solar Cycle 24 was a feeble cycle, peaking at 114 sunspots (the average is 179). The panel agreed that Cycle 25 will be average in intensity and similar to Cycle 24. A remarkable discovery: All Solar system periods fit the Fibonacci series and the Golden Ratio. Sorry, your blog cannot share posts by email. Many solar astronomers thought Solar Cycle 25 would follow suit… or be absent all together, in a new sort of profound lingering solar minimum. The next two centennial solar minima are very good analogues of the pair of super solar minima from 1360 BC and 1250 BC which collapsed most civilisations at the time, the period which many mistakenly call the Minoan Warm Period on the GISP2 ice core proxy.n A rather comical rewriting of history through not realising that Greenland is warmer during centennial solar minima. They announced on December 7, 2020, their prediction that Solar Cycle 25 will be one of the strongest on record. If Solar Cycle 25 meets the panel’s predictions, it should be weaker than average. Cycle 25 is believed to start in December 2019, so that the predictions of cycles 25 and 26 can be made with our models. The next solar maximum, when the Sun is experiencing peak activity, is predicted to occur in July 2025. I have run out of time for now. As you can see large changes in the magnetic filed produce high sunspot numbers. If the Sunspot/Magnetic field relationship is a temporal spatial one like the sine/cosine then perhaps the calculations and graphs below apply. We also derive the standard deviation for the error limits in the predicted results. Sunspots of differing cycles can mix near the minimum, making the exact termination point of a cycle indistinct. Visible light images from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory show the Sun at solar minimum in December 2019 and the last solar maximum in April 2014. Additionally, the panel concurred that solar minimum between Cycles 24 and 25 will occur in April, 2020 (+/- 6 months). Interestingly, 11 years of a terminator separation will lead to an ‘average’ sized cycle. “The sun is performing as we expected–maybe even a little better,” says Lisa Upton of Space Systems Research Corporation, and co-chair of the NOAA/NASA Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel. When time permits I will post graphs with the equations for both methods. Looking at the latest TSI data from the TSIS-1 NASA mission, it’s hard to tell what will happen next, but after an initial spurt of activity at the end of November last year, solar activity has quietened down again for now. “In 2019, the panel predicted that Solar Cycle 25 would peak in July 2025 (± 8 months) with a maximum sunspot count of 115 ± 10. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. Or will it? The most recent cycle, Cycle 23, peaked in 2001 and is coming to an end now. Solar Cycle 25 Predictions The start of a new Solar Cycle (25) means there wil be increasing activity and more sunspots until roughly mid-2025. “This is useful because it puts a limit on the near future sunspot number unless the magnetic field does something completely strange.”. At February 2021 we’ll be at 10 years.”. Change ). Additionally, the panel concurred that solar minimum between Cycles 24 and 25 will occur in April, 2020 (+/- 6 months). An Obama scientist debunks the climate doom-mongers, The physics of evaporation explained - pressure is the key factor, Nikolov & Zeller: Reply to Dr Roy Spencer’s blog article, Stephen Wilde: The ignoring of Adiabatic Processes - Big Mistake, Emissivity puzzle: energy exchange in non-vacuums, Nikolov and Zeller: Reply to comments on the UTC part 1, Lucy Skywalker: Graeff's Second Law Seminar, Graeff's experiments and 2LoD: Replication and Implications, Tim Folkerts: Simple argument supporting a radiative greenhouse effect, Stephen Wilde: The Myth of ‘Backradiation’, Tallbloke and Tim Channon: A cycles analysis approach to predicting solar activity, https://www.leif.org/research/How-to-Predict-Solar-Cycle-25.ppt. Knowing what the Sun is doing is also crucial, as the Artemis initiative to return humans to the Moon ramps up in coming years. Similarly, we expect that the Cycle 24/25 minimum will include extended periods of spotless days throughout 2020 and into 2021. It’s possible it’ll underestimate cycle 25 too. If that is the case, the minimum will be akin to the Dalton Minimum, not the Maunder Minimum. . Weak cycles such as this are preceded by long extended minima and we expect a similar deep, extended minimum for the Cycle 24/25 minimum in 2020. The peak amplitude has been revised downwards to 128+/-10SSN. Additionally, the panel concurred that solar minimum between Cycles 24 and 25 will occur in April, 2020 (+/- 6 months). As at January 1, 2021, solar cycle 25 is showing early signs of being somewhat stronger than solar cycle 24. The solar polar field strength at solar minimum is the most accurate predictor of the amplitude of the following solar cycle. If there is a sine/cosine type relationship then the derivative of the sunspot curve should be a straight plotted against the magnetic field. Below is a plot of the monthly change in the 24 month average of the sunspot number versus the 24 month average of the solar magnetic field strength. Join our 836 patrons! After countless dire predictions for the upcoming cycle indicating similar or even poorer activity levels than the disappointing Cycle 24, the new paper suggests just the opposite! This is a very helpful tool for predicting auroras. On average, the This system was refined recently in 2015 by the Sunspot Index and Long-Term Solar Observations (SILSO) based out of the Royal Observatory in Brussels, Belgium. For solar observers, this may mean more solar prominences, sunspots and aurorae to watch out for in the coming years. UK minister in charge of climate summit criticised for taking 25 flights in three months. ( Log Out / The current solar cycle is known as Solar Cycle 25 and just began in late 2020. There is a chance that the explosion also hurled a coronal mass ejection (CME) toward Earth. And to conclude this exercise below is the average of the two calculations of the sunspot number from the solar magnetic field. Leif Svalgaard 1*. A succinct derivation Aequitas, however, your last plot (at 5:50) shows SC25 greatly exceeding 73, contradicting what you said before, “it has to be close to 73.” Why is that? NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) the venerable joint NASA/ESA Solar Heliospheric observatory mission (SOHO), STEREO-A, the Parker Solar Probe and the joint NASA/European Space Agency Solar Orbiter mission are all in space, studying the Sun. I will post that one later. We just started solar cycle 25 “in December 2020” and the solar activity is only now on the rise. NASA’s Solaris mission was also selected for a concept study recently, and would also target the solar poles if it launches around 2025 for a nominal five year mission. The absolute value plus an integrating constant for a best fit is shown in the graphic below. Why Phi? Solar cycle 24 began on January 1, 2007 with its ascending phase lasting fifteen months until April 1, 2010. Solar prediction scientists announce Solar Cycle 25 published: Tuesday, February 02, 2021 17:14 UTC Analysis determines we are in Solar Cycle 25 - The solar minimum between Solar Cycle 24 and 25 - the period when the sun is least active - happened in December 2019, when the 13-month smoothed sunspot number fell to 1.8, according to the Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel, co-chaired by … Our own prediction, made in 2013 by Rick Salvador is still looking good at the moment. Solar astronomers verify a given sunspot group’s membership by its latitude and polarity. Solar Cycle 25 Consensus Prediction Monthly Mean SSN Smoothed Monthly SSN SWPC-Cycle25-Prediction 23 24 ARRL-ISSN2.5 July 2025, SSN=115 25. www.arrl.org QST April 2021 59 2021 Propagation Forecast Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA Figure 2 — Distribution of Cycle 25 predictions. This has been modified in his latest presentation on the subject. G7 countries want to prevent ‘uncontrollable climate change’, but when was it ever controllable? In news. An over-simplification of the methodologies used to develop their prediction describes the study of the complex relationship involving the Sun's 22-year (Hale) magnetic cycle, the end points of adjoining cycles called 'terminations' and sunspot production, to predict the eventual strength of the new cycle. He talks as if He and Scientists know everything about the Earth’s and the Sun’s history when they are actually guessing, because they were not actually there and do not possess time machines. The Sun’s changing activity is hard to model. I’m not informed enough to say how valid this is or not, but I am hearing it being reported online and I am also hearing reports and evidence of current concerns in climate and food production already occurring to back this up. Solar Cycle 25 is now underway and expected to peak with 115 sunspots in July 2025. Cycle 26 though is the same type as cycles 20 and 16, where Jupiter is in inferior conjunction with Uranus at sunspot maximum rather than in superior conjunction or quadrature, so sunspot numbers will be lower, but the solar wind will be stronger than in cycles 24 and 25. What’s really important is the amount of incident solar absorbed by the high heat capacity overturning ocean, and that depends on changes in cloud albedo. (The near future being the next 5 years.) What to assume? Scientists from NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced their predictions about the new solar cycle, called Solar Cycle 25. While predictions from solar physicists about the fate of Solar Cycle 25 have been categorically tepid up to this point, there may be more than just a ray of hope for Hams still suffering through the tail end of Cycle 24’s less-than-stellar sunspot performance. I will get to the calculations later. We need to wait for more data from SOHO coronagraphs to confirm the CME. “In 2019, the panel predicted that Solar Cycle 25 would peak in July 2025 (± 8 months) with a maximum sunspot count of 115 ± 10. … The program is to be held on Friday, May 21, 2021 at 7:30 PM EDT via Zoom. I think you should also consider the predictions of Prof Leif Svalgaard, one of the few scientists to correctly predict the strength of solar cycle 24. Post was not sent - check your email addresses! It’s possible it’ll underestimate cycle 25 too. 1 W.W. Hansen Experimental Physics Laboratory, Stanford University. The first two experiments planned for the Moon-orbiting Lunar Gateway will measure cumulative radiation exposure in the near-lunar environment, as will experiments aboard NASA’s Commercial Lunar Payload Services’ (CLPS) Astrobotic Lunar Peregrine Mission One and Intuitive Machines Nova-C lander, which will bring similar experiments to the lunar surface this summer. If the solar minimum prediction is correct, this would make Solar Cycle 24 the 7 th longest on record (11.4 years).” The graphic below is a recalculation of the historical sunspot number using the absolute value of the equation above and the actual 24 month magnetic field average. A word about solar cycles: Astronomers number each 11-year solar cycle, 1, 2, 3 and so on.
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